Predictions are cheap. Positions are not.
The predictor's own bet: Aschenbrenner's fund
The author of "AGI by 2027" didn't just predict — he ran Situational Awareness LP to a reported 439% return for 2026 through June (>1000% since inception). His Q1 2026 13F showed a very specific thesis: long AI power & infrastructure (Bloom Energy $879M, CoreWeave, SanDisk) with ~$8.5B notional in puts against chip names — Nvidia (~$1.57B), SMH (~$2B), Broadcom, AMD, Micron. Then July 2026: per CNBC and Bloomberg, the fund lost ~67% in a month as longs and shorts moved against it together, and transferred most of its public portfolio to Citadel — assets down from a ~$45B peak to ~$10B, keeping private stakes like Anthropic. He may still be right about the industry; the leverage didn't survive long enough to find out. The collapse, graded against his predictions → · The full holdings story → · How his predictions grade →
How 8 investing legends are positioned on AI
Snapshot from Q2 2026 filings (as of 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14). Two honest exceptions: Ackman's latest filing on record is Q1 2026 (filed 2026-05-15), and Burry has filed no 13F since winding down Scion in November 2025 — his stance is per his 2026-05 personal disclosure. Stances are our reading of their public AI-related moves, not their words:
| Investor | Firm | AI stance | Signature move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warren Buffett | Berkshire Hathaway | Cautious | Alphabet added again in Q2 (A+C classes now 12.6% of the book) — the clearest AI bet; Apple still #1 at 22%; Amazon, exited in Q1, not rebought |
| Cathie Wood | ARK Invest | Bull | Aggressively long AI infra & next-gen compute: CoreWeave, Cerebras; nuclear (X-Energy) as AI's power base |
| Bill Ackman | Pershing Square | Bull | Amazon top AI position (17.4% of an 11-name book), Microsoft 15.3%, Meta 11.1% — per Q1 2026, his latest filing |
| David Tepper | Appaloosa | Bull | Amazon #1 (15.4%), Micron 14.6%, TSMC 10.2% — AI monetization and the memory cycle over pure compute |
| Stanley Druckenmiller | Duquesne | Cautious | TSMC top AI position (5.4%); rotated into storage and memory (Seagate 2.3%, SanDisk 1.5%) — the bottleneck trade, not the crowded names |
| Duan Yongping | H&H International | Cautious | Apple the anchor (41.1% of the book); Tesla 7.4%, Nvidia 6.6% — the 2026 full-chain AI tilt held through Q2 |
| Philippe Laffont | Coatue | Cautious | Full-stack AI infrastructure: TSMC #1 (8.8%), Lam Research 8.4%, Micron 7.5% |
| Michael Burry | Scion (wound down) | Bear | The clearest AI bear (per 2026-05 personal disclosure) |
Full profiles: Warren Buffett — Alphabet again in Q2 2026 · Cathie Wood — ARK's Q2 book (more migrating each week).
New: Is Nvidia overvalued? What its AI bet actually rides on — the bet-structure audit: 90% buildout, under 10% AGI, three 13F books that disagree completely.
🧭 Per-holding detail lives on the Compass — every investor profile with per-position notes, theses and sources, bilingual: open compass.agiscorecard.com →
You have seen what they hold. What does your basket actually bet on?
Pick your AI names and get two numbers: a score against the eight graded predictions on the same 0–100 scale as the Thesis Tracker, and the share of your basket that genuinely rides on AGI arriving rather than on the buildout continuing. A standard infrastructure basket scores 99 with about 2% riding on AGI itself.
Check my exposure →Before asking what they hold, ask whether copying them actually paid.
A 13F is public ~45 days late, so backtesting at quarter-end prices assumes a price nobody could have traded. The Copy-Homework Scorecard buys each basket at the close of its filing date and holds to the next filing — the first price a real person opening EDGAR could pay. As of 2026-08-16, over 8 rebalances since August 2024: Druckenmiller +187.2%, Cathie Wood +170%, Tepper +108.2%, against QQQ +59.6% over the same window — while Buffett's AI sleeve returned +37.3% and lagged the index. AI-related holdings only, re-weighted as filed; not these managers' whole-portfolio returns.
See the full scorecard →Past results do not predict future returns. An after-the-fact calculation on public filings, not a recommendation.
Tools in this section
Score your own basket against the eight graded predictions — and see how little of it actually rides on AGI arriving.
Score your basket →Live watchlist with pre-registered buy/sell trigger levels, 52-week positioning, and an auditable forecast ledger — updated every 30 minutes.
Open SunWatch →Did copying the legends' AI holdings actually pay? Backtested at filing-date closes, benchmarked to QQQ.
See the scorecard →AI-sector themes, legends' 13F positioning, and a consensus score per AI stock.
Open the Compass →Goal-based US-equity portfolio building with deterministic optimization + paper trading. Prototype.
Try Gushen →The information edge: is AGI-2027 actually on track? One auditable score.
Thesis Tracker (62.5/100) →A public pre-registered experiment: kill conditions filed before entry, monthly audits. Plus: how much of Justin Sun's 2013 story is verified?
The live ledger → · The audit →Every dated AGI call on a live countdown — the claims behind the trades.
See the receipts →The Q2 13Fs landed August 14, 2026 — six of the eight books above are now June 30 snapshots.
The exceptions stay labelled: Ackman's latest filing is Q1, and Burry has filed nothing since Scion wound down. One filing remains unusually loaded: Situational Awareness's own Q2 13F is the last full picture of what it held on June 30 — at full leverage, weeks before it lost ~67% and sold most of the book to Citadel — and we grade it line by line the day we have read it. Holdings here change only after we have read a filing line by line; qualitative commentary never becomes a position on this page. The day this page changes, subscribers hear about it.
Tell me what changed, filing day →Why this section exists
AGI timelines aren't academic — trillions in capex, chip valuations and fund flows hinge on them. The scorecard grades the claims; this hub tracks the capital. Together they close the loop: research the thesis, see who's betting what, and use the tools — then make your own decisions.
Frequently asked questions
Per Q2 2026 SEC 13F filings (holdings as of June 30, filed August 14): Warren Buffett's Berkshire added Alphabet again — now 12.6% of the book across both share classes, its clearest AI bet — while staying out of Amazon; Cathie Wood is aggressively long AI infrastructure and next-gen compute; David Tepper leans bullish with Amazon at 15.4% his largest position; Bill Ackman remains bullish per his latest Q1 filing; Druckenmiller, Duan Yongping and Philippe Laffont are cautious; Michael Burry is the clearest bear.
Leopold Aschenbrenner — who predicted AGI by 2027 — runs Situational Awareness LP. Its Q1 2026 13F showed the fund long AI power and infrastructure (Bloom Energy, CoreWeave) with roughly $8.5B notional in put options against chip names including Nvidia. In late July 2026, per CNBC and Bloomberg reporting, the fund lost about 67% in a month and transferred most of its public equity portfolio to Citadel; assets fell from a ~$45B peak to about $10B, retaining private stakes such as Anthropic.
No. Everything in this section is educational information based on public SEC 13F filings and public statements. Holdings snapshots are quarterly and may not reflect current positions. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Follow the money, quarterly.
When 13Fs drop or an AGI verdict flips, we tell you what changed — free, no hype.
Subscribe free →