AI “orders of magnitude” (OOMs), explained
The OOM forecast is now a graded bet, not an argument.
Aschenbrenner’s compute arithmetic resolves prediction by prediction — the 62.5/100 above moves only when one of the eight graded verdicts actually flips. Subscribe and you hear the day the score moves.
Alert me when the score moves →What an OOM is
One order of magnitude = 10×. Two OOMs = 100×. Aschenbrenner reasons in OOMs because AI progress is exponential: it's easier to track "how many 10×s per year" than absolute numbers. His forecast is essentially an addition problem — stack enough OOMs of effective compute and you cross the AGI threshold.
The three sources of OOMs
| Source | What it adds |
|---|---|
| Raw compute | Bigger training runs |
| Algorithmic efficiency | More capability per FLOP |
| Unhobbling | Unlocking latent capability (reasoning, tools, agents) |
The bet, and how it's tracking
He projected roughly 0.5 OOM/yr of effective compute, sustained. As of mid-2026 an independent audit calls the pace "roughly supported," with launches scattered within about ±0.5 OOM of the trend — graded On track. This OOM engine is what sits under every downstream claim: capability, AGI timing, and the intelligence explosion. If the OOMs stop stacking, the whole 2027 case slips.
Frequently asked questions
An order of magnitude (OOM) is a factor of 10. Aschenbrenner counts OOMs of 'effective compute' — raw compute plus algorithmic efficiency plus unhobbling — because AI progress is exponential and easier to track as '10×s per year.'
Roughly 0.5 orders of magnitude of effective compute per year, sustained over the decade. As of mid-2026 the pace has roughly held, graded On track.
Because his AGI forecast is essentially an addition problem: stack enough OOMs of effective compute and you cross the AGI threshold. If the OOMs stop stacking, the 2027 timeline slips.
The live scorecard updates as models ship and verdicts change.
View the live scorecard →Be first to know when a verdict flips
One email when one of the eight verdicts changes and the AGI-2027 Thesis Tracker moves — the single auditable score no other tracker has. Not a weekly newsletter; nothing arrives until the score actually moves.
Subscribe free →