When will AGI arrive? Every major forecast, compared
Status, August 14, 2026: the nearest of these forecasts — Aschenbrenner’s 2027 — is 504 days from the deadline that settles it. The eight predictions it rests on have scored 62.5 / 100 on the AGI-2027 Thesis Tracker at every reading since the first one on June 30, 2026 — 45 days without a verdict change (full history, verdicts as data). A forecast spectrum that keeps compressing while the underlying evidence sits still is the most useful thing to know about this question today: the disagreement is moving, the facts are not.
The forecasts, side by side
| Forecaster | AGI timeline |
|---|---|
| Elon Musk (xAI) | By end of 2026 |
| Leopold Aschenbrenner | 2027 |
| Demis Hassabis (DeepMind) | ~50% by 2030 |
| Samotsvety forecasters | ~28% by 2030 |
| Metaculus community | 25% by 2029 · 50% by 2033 |
| Andrej Karpathy | ~A decade out |
| AI researcher survey (n=2,778) | 50% by 2047 |
Definitions of "AGI" vary enough that this table is approximate — some forecasters mean a drop-in remote worker, others a system that can autonomously do AI research. But the spread is real, and so is the direction of travel.
You just read every major forecast. So — when do you say AGI arrives?
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The meta-trend: everyone is moving earlier
The single most striking fact isn't any one date — it's the compression. Expert median estimates have moved from roughly 2060 to roughly 2033 in about six years. The whole distribution keeps sliding toward the aggressive end, where Aschenbrenner's 2027 sits.
Who's closest to being tested?
Aschenbrenner's 2027 call is the nearest concrete deadline among serious forecasters and resolves by January 1, 2028. As of mid-2026, agentic coding is strong (~80% on SWE-Bench Pro) but no system has autonomously conducted AI research end-to-end — the bar that would settle it. That gap is why his prediction is currently graded Open, not on track. See the full AGI forecaster leaderboard — every public call ranked by how soon it faces the verdict.
The nearest of these forecasts resolves January 1, 2028.
Until then, “when will AGI arrive” has no honest answer — only the question of which evidence moves, and in which direction. That is what the AGI-2027 Thesis Tracker exists to measure: one auditable 0–100 score across eight graded predictions, which moves only when a verdict actually changes. Subscribe and you hear on the day it moves.
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One slider puts your year on this exact spectrum and tells you how many of these forecasts you are ahead of.
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Nvidia's AI story, mapped against the same eight graded predictions, rides 90% on the buildout being funded and under 10% on AGI itself arriving — our bet-structure audit shows the working. One tap scores the basket that matches your timeline camp against those verdicts.
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Frequently asked questions
There is no consensus. As of 2026, serious public forecasts range from 2026 (Musk) and 2027 (Aschenbrenner) to ~2030 (Hassabis), 2033 (Metaculus community), and 2047 (academic survey median).
Elon Musk is the most aggressive among prominent voices, suggesting AGI by end of 2026. Aschenbrenner's 2027 is next, more aggressive than lab leaders like Demis Hassabis (~50% by 2030).
The academic survey median (n=2,778) is 50% by 2047, and the Metaculus community median is 50% by 2033. But expert medians have compressed from roughly 2060 to 2033 in about six years.
The live scorecard updates as models ship and verdicts change.
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